today's statistics links

1. Dr. Pezz compares Olympics coverage and a staff meeting, cautioning us to be wary of statistics. The following links will contain statistics of various origin, kind, and significance. Beware indeed!

2. DMZ track's Jose Vidro's decline and fall. (Look closely at the link: good thing it's not Orthography Day.)

3. Slate is now measuring Olympic sap. That's actually the best thing about watching the Games on NBCOlympics.com. It hosts live feeds of all the contests, without any announcers or cutaways for canned corn. Brilliant--and addictive.

4. The U.S. trade deficit dropped. In June. Whether this is a good thing is economically dubious.

5. Mike the Mad Biologist, on pundits, pols, and polls: "Someday, we will have a political press corps that is mathematically literate. And then I will have a magic pony."

6. Up to 80% of British biofuels may come from unsustainable sources. (Soylent Gas was a rare exception.)

7. Even if men are buying more clothing, does it matter much?

8. (Added late) And check out Jordan Ellenberg's explanation of the new way to score gymnastics.

the weed on the bus goes round and round, all around town

A couple folks complained about an Oly Hempfest ad on the side of an Intercity Transit bus. The agency isn't backing down, though; the ad clearly represents political speech, even though it includes--horrors!--a photo of a cannabis leaf. What's out of bounds:

Intercity Transit forbids advertising on its buses that is obscene, defamatory, racist, sexist or "that is directed at producing imminent lawless action and is likely to produce such action." The agency does not endorse any issue or product advertised on its buses, the exception being self-promotion, according to its policies. All political and issue advertisements identify who sponsored them.

If looking at a pot leaf promotes "imminent lawless action," then what will we make of all those anti-drug ads sporting drug paraphernalia? Consider the top half of a recent print ad, which, at first (and potentially only) glance, has a message bound to boomerang:

Today's weed: twice as efficient!

how not to make an advertisement

Seth Stevenson lets his readers vent: which current ads do they hate? There are too many to choose from.

Special mention goes to Billy Mays, hawking health insurance for iCan with the same glib tones and forced gestures he employs when demonstrating cleaners. Writes Stevenson,

This ad is kind of amazing. Watch Billy Mays' hand gestures—they never stop! Hands go out, palms facing each other. Hands come back in, fists balled. Hands go back out, index fingers extended. It's either OCD or some sort of primitive sign language. I think it's happening because he has no tangible product to demonstrate. They should have let him use a sheaf of insurance documentation to wipe up spills with. Or maybe a wallet card for dabbing on grout?

If you're a speech and debate coach, don't-be-like-Billy gives you at least a full week's lesson plan.

a parasite that prefers a crowd

By stunting the growth of potential queens, a fly can dictate the future of a tropical sweat bee colony. [sub. req.]

Megalopta genalis lives in colonies, where young female bees develop inside cells stuffed with nutritious nectar and pollen. A small parasitic fly called Fiebrigella can also lay its eggs inside these cells. When they hatch, the larvae steal the food stores, which stunts the developing bee's growth.

That has a profound effect on the bee's future. Large, well-fed bees stand a good chance of leaving the nest and starting a new colony as reproducing queens. Their stunted relatives, in contrast, have little chance of succeeding as colony founders. The best way to pass their genes on to the next generation is to become sterile workers labouring for the queen that bore them, which helps her to reproduce and pass down genes to the workers' sisters on their behalf. So the actions of the fly indirectly dictate who takes the crown.

"In Megalopta, the parasites promote sociality," says [UW's Sean] O'Donnell. His study is the first to show that a parasite can actually encourage group living in its host, he says.

Usually, parasites prefer introverts.

Washburn vs. Span

Jarrod Washburn, in a recent series against the Twins, made my favorite play of the season so far, throwing out Denard Span on a bunt attempt. Washburn won that battle, but Span won the war. (Keep watching the highlights that follow to see how.)

Bergeson fails the WASL

Actually, not really. Well, sort of.

Out of three questions given to Bergeson, the answer sheet posted on The Stranger showed that she didn’t answer any of the three questions correctly....

Bergeson's campaign manager told KIRO 7 that The Stranger surprised Bergeson with the questions, which she had trouble seeing, because she didn't have her glasses with her.

That is... a lame excuse.

six applicants remain

The Olympia School Board has whittled down the list of replacements for Bob Shirley and Russ Lehman. Three each, The Olympian reports:

Those who remain under consideration for Director District 3 are Jim Justin, Doug Pennington and Eileen Thomson.

Those who remain under consideration for Director District 5 are Mark Campeau, Jerry Vick and Ron Wieland.

The paper notes that the public will have a chance to question the remaining candidates. Only problem: no date or time. The district website provides the missing clues.

Members of the public are invited to attend a forum of the candidates for School Board on Tuesday, August 12th at the Knox Administrative Center, 1113 Legion Way SE, Olympia. Candidates for Director District #3 and Director District #5 will answer questions from members of the audience. The session for Director District #3 is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. to 7:30 p.m., with the session for Director District #5 scheduled from 7:45 p.m. to 9:15 p.m.

3 is Shirley's vacated post; 5 belonged to Lehman. Got three free hours?

that inimitable poetry-reading voice

Terry Teachout:

Today's literary critics have fallen into the unfortunate habit of using the word "voice" when they mean "style." It's easy to see why that metaphorical usage has become popular -- a writer with a strongly individual style often seems to be speaking directly to the reader -- but appearances can be deceiving, at times cruelly so. Take Raymond Chandler, the creator of Philip Marlowe, the hard-boiled private eye with a heart of mush. On paper Marlowe was forever tossing off snappy side-of-the-mouth wisecracks ("He looked about as inconspicuous as a tarantula on a slice of angel food"). Humphrey Bogart played him in "The Big Sleep," and you know what he sounded like. But what about the real-life author who put the words in Bogie's mouth? Brace yourself: Chandler's mild-mannered speaking voice bore an uncanny resemblance to the milksop whine of Elmer Fudd.

How do I know? Because Ian Fleming, the creator of James Bond, interviewed Chandler in 1958 for a BBC radio broadcast, a tape of which survives. More than a few of the most celebrated writers of the 20th century spoke over the BBC at one time or another, and to hear them is usually to be astonished, sometimes because they sound so wrong and sometimes because they sound so right. Max Beerbohm, the great Edwardian essayist and caricaturist, made several BBC broadcasts during World War II, and his precise, wistfully gentle voice turns out to have been ideally suited to his witty prose.

I'm not a huge fan of books on tape, or of poetry readings, but there are a few exceptions. My favorite out-loud poet is e.e. cummings, with his lilting cadences and musicality. Even better: in some recordings he sounds exactly like Winnie the Pooh.

John McCain is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

Astroturf has been a verb for a while. It's nice to see that the McCain campaign has figured out a new wrinkle on the tactic: pay people to spam others' blogs with pro-McCain jibberjabber. Darryl of Horse's Ass:

Therefore, by joining in the fun, you not only spread your own philosophy of McCain and his talking points, but you earn cool stuff and help the economy by enticing the McCain staff to hire additional webmasters to wade through thousands and thousands of comment reports.

The easiest way to comment is to simply copy the talking points verbatim. But my own recommendation is this:

John McCain is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.

What could be more positive then that? Hundreds of thousands of times in blog comment threads across the land. Day after day.

Jesse Walker:

Interestingly, the list of suggested blogs includes several -- InstaPundit, the Club for Growth -- that do not, in fact, let readers post comments.

D'oh.

the streak is alive

Every year I've taught, I've been handed a new class, sometimes a couple. This coming school year only continues the trend. Here are all the classes I've taught over the past six years; the last is the new course I'll teach this September.

9th English
9th Pre-IB* English
10th English
10th Pre-IB English
11th IB English
12th IB English
Psychology and Sociology (summer term)
Debate
Senior Reading
Senior Writing
Creative Writing
Reading Essentials

This latest one should be one of my most exciting: I get to put into practice all the research I've been poring over throughout the summer. Another July/August, another intellectual project.


*International Baccalaureate

The Olympian liveblogs a School Board meeting

The tough one, from a liveblogging perspective, what with all the candidates for the two open positions.

Frankly, it's about time that the old media figured out one of the most basic of New Media maneuvers.

Now I may retire in peace.

2008 primary brings out the crazies: Part II

The smaller races bring out smaller crackpots, for the most part; and why not? The bigger the audience, the bigger the buffoonery. Still, there are quite a few loose screws in the toolbox below.


John Moyna, Senator, Dist. 3
Charm Rating: Unknown
Most Appealing Feature: Anonymity
Tone: Laconic
Biggest Flaws: Anonymity; Mystique over substance
The Campaign in a Sentence: "All mankind can be categorized into one of two groups: Those who demand the ability to control others, and those not wanting to be controlled."


Chris Bowen, Representative, Pos. 1, Dist. 3
Charm Rating: 3
Most Appealing Feature: Enthusiasm
Tone: Naive
Biggest Flaws: Dubious experience; attended Eastern Washington University
The Campaign in a Sentence: "I was born in 1978 to a nuclear engineer and one of the sweetest ladies you could ever meet."


David M. Morris, Representative, Pos. 1, Dist. 11
Charm Rating: 7
Most Appealing Feature: Lack of experience
Tone: Strident
Biggest Flaws: Lack of experience; redundant punctuation
The Campaign in a Sentence: "SECURE THE BORDER NOW!."


William Glenn (Walkley) Jesernig, Representative, Pos. 2, Dist. 16
Charm Rating: 8
Most Appealing Feature: Brutal honesty
Tone: Devoted
Biggest Flaws: Lack of experience; brutal honesty.
The Campaign in a Sentence:"I am a God fearing father of 9 and grandfather of 7 soon to be 8, Distance runner, Concert promoter, Excavating general contractor, Pyrotechnic operator, Poker Pro, Author, Hole puncher, who never tries; I keep doing till it is done."


Ron Morehouse, Representative, Pos. 2, Dist. 25
Charm Rating: 5
Most Appealing Feature: Parentheses
Tone: Different
Biggest Flaws: Shouting; inconsistent punctuation
The Campaign in a Sentence: "I WILL NOT COMPROMISE MY ETHICS OR BELIEFS."


Leslie Klein, Representative, Pos. 2, Dist. 36
Charm Rating: 6
Most Appealing Feature: Lists "spy" under experience
Tone: Kidding?
Biggest Flaws: Thinking that gaining 16% of the vote counts as a success; hawking a self-help book
The Campaign in a Sentence: "I INTEND TO EMPOWER PEOPLE TO SOLVE THEIR OWN PROBLEMS."


Timothy (Cleaver) Stoddard, Senator, Dist. 40
Charm Rating: 8
Most Appealing Feature: Shades
Tone: Goofy
Biggest Flaws: Suspect grammar; inoffensiveness
The Campaign in a Sentence: "All Modern day Ideas for solving current problems can be solved using Karmic principles."


Keith Ljunghammar, Representative, Pos. 1, Dist. 46
Charm Rating: 4
Most Appealing Feature: Family status
Tone: Shouty
Biggest Flaws: Exclamation point abuse; cut-and-paste candidate statement
The Campaign in a Sentence: "Educate, not Excavate!"


Honorable Mention: Michael C. Powell, Representative, Pos. 2, Dist. 2, who, for his family status, put "Single—looking for a date (after November)." What is it with taxpayer-funded personal ads?

door prize democracy and the Olympia isthmus

Thad Curtz has noted something interesting about the way the City of Olympia organizes its public comment:

At the Planning Commission hearing this June 142 people signed in to speak against the rezone and 62 people signed in to speak in favor of it. In spite of this, the Commission had people take turns back and forth, pro and con. People in favor of the rezone got to speak half the time - in addition to the extra 15 minutes at the beginning Triway got all to itself to present its proposal (another five turns). The public comment period lasted three hours; 63 people actually got to speak - 31 opposed and 32 in favor.

If you'd taken the time and energy to get ready to try to say something persuasive in three minutes and you were in favor of the rezone, you had almost a 52% chance of getting to speak (32 slots for 62 people). If you were opposed to the rezone, you had just under a 22% chance of getting to speak (31 slots for 142 people)....

In spite of that, it was easy to walk away from the hearing feeling that half the people there were for the rezone and half opposed it, since that was what you'd just spent three hours listening to. The fact that three-quarters of the people there opposed it was invisible, unless you looked up the documents from the hearing afterwards and counted...

One of the functions of a community conversation like this is supposed to be to give the assembled citizens a sense of the whole community's thinking and feeling about the issue. It's not only unfair for people supporting the rezone to have a much better chance of talking, it produces a strongly misleading impression in the audience about the community's views on the issue.

Over there, I've posted a version of what I argue below.

The simplest way to ensure a speaking order that gives everyone a fair shot is a random draw. If each attendee puts her name in a box, and the order of speakers is chosen once a predetermined deadline is reached, each has the same individual probability of first pick as everyone else; simultaneously, the overall ordering, given a large enough sample, will reflect the composition of the group. Randomized assortment also prohibits any sort of selection bias.

This precludes the back-and-forth usually seen in a parliamentary style debate. However, since your average citizen isn't trained in the art of rebuttal, the pro-con lockstep may not be the ideal discussion style anyway.

consider me another "Mojave" hater

If you haven't seen the ads popping up all over the web, like fungus after rain, this'll be news to you: Microsoft has pulled a Folgers.

Last week, Microsoft posted videos at MojaveExperiment.com of a test involving about 140 randomly chosen computer users who had low opinions of Vista.

These users had no experience with Vista, so they were shown what was said to be the company's new operating system, called "Mojave." Nearly all liked what they saw.

At the end, they were told Mojave was really Vista.

The videos show the shocked reaction. "Wow, really?" many of them said, looking as surprised as the patrons of America's finest restaurants did in the 1980s TV commercials when the brewed coffee had been replaced by "dark, sparkling, decaffeinated Folgers Crystals."

Critics were unmoved, of course:

The main complaint: Is 10 minutes of watching an expert demonstrate Vista a valid basis on which to assess it?

Although many of Vista's problems have involved setting it up and installing drivers and applications, the software was preloaded in the experiment, so that aspect of Vista was not tested at all.

The site showed "no videos of connecting new devices, attempting to get on a Wi-Fi network or tunneling into work's VPN," or virtual private network, noted Adam DuVander of Webmonkey,

Microsoft should be applauded for at least admitting that the bad press for Vista has pinched where it hurts, and for trying a clever stunt. The critics, though, are right. I've spent hours upon hours trying to get my mom's HP multifunction inkjet to work with Vista (on an HP PC, no less), baffling tech support reps along the way. I eventually had to download all the software from the HP website, figuring the CD installer was bad; a few weeks later, mysteriously, the scanner quit sending data over the network again.

I've worked through the faults and foibles of XP, and they're nothing in comparison. Getting ignorant users to try an artificial experience is ultimately no test of Vista's merits. By any other name, Vista still sucketh.

a quixotic candidate dream team

Fans of quixotic candidates: the 2008 primary edition, Part I is now available. A sample:

Goodspaceguy Nelson, Congress, District 7
Charm Rating: 8
Most Appealing Feature: A love of space colonization that would make him change his first name to "Goodspaceguy."
Tone: Astral
Biggest Flaws: "Birth control" spectacles; being born outside our solar system
The Campaign in a Sentence: "Goodspaceguy wants more people studying at our colleges during the underutilized evenings and weekends."

Read about 'em before they're knocked out by our "Top Two" system.

Update: Part II, bursting with cranky freshness.

2008 primary brings out the crazies: Part I

I present this year's best primary candidates, who, sadly, have the same chances of winning that the Mariners do of reaching the World Series. This is Part I, the statewide offices. (I include the Congressional reps in that number for dubious reasons.)

And yes, I read the entire voter's guide, even the candidates who didn't appear in the Thurston County edition, just to show I care.

Each Candidate will be appraised with four objective criteria and one sample quote. The Charm Rating, the lone number of the bunch, goes from 1-10; 1 = Mildew, 10 = Cary Grant in a tux.



Glen S. Johnson, Congress, District 2
Charm Rating: 7
Biggest Flaws: Claims that merely running for office counts as experience; confusing campaign blurb with book promo
Tone: Jovial
Most Appealing Feature: Alliteration
The Campaign in a Sentence: "People are from what they eat."


Gordon Allen Pross, Congress, District 4
Charm Rating: 7
Most Appealing Feature: Ladies, Gordon is "Biblically Single."
Tone: Anecdotal
Biggest Flaws: Abuse of bullet points; confusing campaign blurb with personal ad
The Campaign in a Sentence: "Liberty pins its wings on equality, so let’s get equal!"


Goodspaceguy Nelson, Congress, District 7
Charm Rating: 8
Most Appealing Feature: A love of space colonization that would make him change his first name to "Goodspaceguy."
Tone: Astral
Biggest Flaws: "Birth control" spectacles; being born outside our solar system
The Campaign in a Sentence: "Goodspaceguy wants more people studying at our colleges during the underutilized evenings and weekends."


Mark A. Goldman, Congress, District 7
Charm Rating: 10 (pictured in a tuxedo, for goodness' sake)
Most Appealing Feature: No party preference
Tone: Poetic
Biggest Flaws: Abuse of ellipses; flowery rhetoric
The Campaign in a Sentence: "I offer you a strategy based on truth, honor, dignity, compassion, courage, and love."


Al Schaefer, Congress, District 7
Charm Rating: 6
Most Appealing Feature: Sideburns
Tone: Constitutional
Biggest Flaws: Making jury nullification a central issue; the old "income tax is voluntary" gaffe
The Campaign in a Sentence: "With your help our proposals flower."


Will Baker, Governor
Charm Rating: 1
Most Appealing Feature: Unelectable
Tone: Strident
Biggest Flaws: Taking things personally; thinking himself the center of Washington's political universe
The Campaign in a Sentence: "Visit www.TheTruthRocks.com and then please call “60 Minutes” at (212) 975-2006 and please press zero to speak with a live person."


Duff Badgely, Governor
Charm Rating: 4
Most Appealing Feature: Turtleneck
Tone: Frantic
Biggest Flaws: Vastly overestimating the influence and power of the office; Abuse of bullet points
The Campaign in a Sentence: "Now, the Earth is changing in non-linear ways."


Javier O. Lopez, Governor
Charm Rating: 7
Most Appealing Feature: Invented the "Air Engine"
Tone: Ingenious, or possibly unhinged
Biggest Flaws: Confusing the auditor's office with the patent office; violating the laws of thermodynamics
The Campaign in a Sentence: "As an artist and inventor I have come up with an invention that will solve all of the world’s problems."


Mohammad Hasan Said, Governor
Charm Rating: 1
Most Appealing Feature: Quoting George Washington
Tone: Bigoted
Biggest Flaws: Anti-Jewish rhetoric; missing the opportunity to use the word "cabal"
The Campaign in a Sentence: "Finally I would like to sound the alarm, that AIPAC and other Jewish Zionist Lobbies who represent less than 2% of American People are using the United States through their mighty power in the News Media, Financial Institutions, Hollywood and Entertainment Industry, Both Political Parties, Congress and the White House as Proxy to wage war against any country perceived to be threat to Israel, like in Iraq."


David Blomstrom, Superintendent of Public Instruction
Charm Rating: 0
Most Appealing Feature: Sticktuitiveness
Tone: Irritable Bowel
Biggest Flaws: Bizarre mix of zingers and scolds; holding up Hugo Chavez as worthy of imitation
The Campaign in a Sentence: "I’m even attacking Bill Gates, right in his home town."

Update: Part II here.

no trade claws

The Mariners shopped their stars, but reports say that management was too greedy, so the only talent we axed was our premier situational lefty, Arthur Rhodes, and the only prospect a future investment named Gaby Hernandez. Call it a Claw Crane effort.

Here are a few links to trade deadline analyses, certain to be obsolete by the end of the decade.

1. Geoff Baker, The Seattle Times, breaks down the one move the M's made, and the four biggest that they didn't.

2. Dave of USS Mariner hands out grades.

Pelekoudas gets an A for the Rhodes trade - he did quite well. He gets an incomplete for the Washburn and Ibanez situations, as both are still somewhat unresolved. The Mariners need to keep trying to move Washburn, putting him on waivers tomorrow and lowering their demands, now that the Yankees called their bluff. If they can dump him before end of August, not dealing him today won’t matter. If they keep him for the rest of the season and risk getting stuck with him, he gets an F for not taking advantage of dumping Wash when he could.

3. Jayson Stark, ESPN, gives another overall assessment, and it ain't pretty.

How could Ibanez still be there? How could Jarrod Washburn still be there? How could one-third of that roster not have been traded in the past couple of weeks?

"I'm cutting them a little slack," one rival GM said. "They're leader-less right now."

True, they have an interim GM (the well-liked Lee Pelekoudas) and a confusing ownership arrangement and an uncertain chain of command. But they angered teams they spoke to with what were widely viewed as outrageous demands. And the bottom line is that this deadline represented a lost renovation opportunity in the middle of an already-lost season. And how many lost opportunities can clubs like this afford?

Well, since the Mariners are about to pay $100 million to lose 100 games, maybe they can afford a lot more.

tweaking the constants

A while back, I linked to an article that, I figured, seriously undermined the Anthropic Principle's logic. Further monkeying with crucial constants reveals that, indeed, it's flawed to presume that we should test for "cosmic fine tuning" by changing only one variable at a time. [sub. req.]

[U of Michigan, Ann Arbor's Fred] Adams started with a simple definition of a star: a massive body held together by its own gravity that is stable, long-lived and generates energy through nuclear processes. Just three constants are involved in the formation of such stars. One is the gravitational constant. The second is alpha, the fine structure constant that determines the strength of interactions between radiation and matter. The third is a composite of constants that determines the reaction rates of nuclear processes.

Adams then cooked up a batch of virtual universes, computing a wide range of values for the three constants, each universe possessing laws of physics unlike our own. The results:

About a quarter of the resulting universes turned out to be populated by energy-generating stars. "You can change alpha or the gravitational constant by a factor of 100 and stars still form," Adams says, suggesting that stars can exist in universes in which at least some fundamental constants are wildly different than in our universe.

The possibility of life-supporting black holes, about as wild as you can get, cosmologically speaking, arose in Adams' simulations. CalTech's Sean Carroll comments:

"I don't know what it would look like or how it would work, but black holes radiate, just like stars do. Why couldn't you have life arise in the 'atmosphere' of a gently radiating black hole?"

Crazy stuff.

Those still clinging to the Anthropic Principle had better dig those fingernails in pretty tight.

I am not a spammer

Google temporarily shut down decorabilia, their robots thinking I was a spamblogger. (I wasn't alone.)

But I'm not. I promise. I am a genuine, bona fide, really real human being. I have a heart, and spleen, and endocrine system, and tibula*, and lungs, and, some would argue, a brain.

Thus, my appeal to the Google blog justice system was accepted, and my humanity was not only confirmed, but celebrated.

I am no spammer.

Although I do like spam poetry. But that is not a crime.



* Update: Error flagged, but not corrected. Let it shine like a beacon of humanity.

Board openings draw a crowd

...of applicants for the two vacant positions. Sixteen, in fact. This is fantastic [pdf], and shows how perpetual media attention on the budget crisis and fractiousness has really gotten people motivated, the best thing to come out of the last six months.

Tuesday, August 5th, the Board will meet with the candidates, the next official step in the whittling-down. I'd predict that the process wraps up by the August 25th meeting.