Jan 7, 2007

I'll say it again

A while back I took Bill Simmons' NFL prognostications to task. Now, it looks like Simmons has learned his lesson. After a wild year of upsets and the death of conventional wisdom, a chastened sportspundit laments,
My long-running NFL Playoff Manifesto (here's the 4.0 version) centered on the premise that it's a puzzle that can be pieced together with a proven set of gambling rules. This mantra worked nicely for a long time, peaking when I went 28-14-2 over a four-year playoff span from '01 to '04 (here and on my old Web site). When we entered the era of Perpetual Putridity, those rules became irrelevant and the Manifesto posted a .500 mark (11-11) over the past two playoffs. Now we're coming off a regular season in which underdogs finished an astonishing 39 games over .500. It's foolish to pretend that there's any rhyme or reason to this stuff from year to year. I give up.
Further on down, in the playoff picks, comes this gem:
You're telling me they can't get it together for three hours and beat a clearly inferior team?
"They" are the Cowboys. The "inferior team," the Seahawks. We know how that turned out.

Don't bet on sports.

Incidentally, for whatever reason, I'm calling tomorrow's NCAA football championship a close Gators victory. Everybody in the whole world, your grandmother included, thinks Ohio State is gonna walk all over Florida. Everybody is wrong.

Florida 31, OSU 27. You'll all hate me when I'm right.


Matthew Anderson said...

Shoot, you were right on the USC game (much to my chagrin!). I took a whallop on that one. But then again, my picks in sports this year have been worse than Simmons', so I don't feel too bad about it. But I am calling it for the Seahawks next weekend against the Bears. Redemption is ours.

Jim Anderson said...

I am so relieved that we're not facing New Orleans. As long as it doesn't snow in Chicago, and Rex Grossman stands in at QB, we've got a fighting chance.

But then, we may be going in without D-Jack and DJ Hackett. Yikes.

Aaron said...

As the lone supporter of Texas last year, I feel confident in your score, Mr. A, with an OSU defeat.

Aaron said...

Seahawks-Saints NFC championship, In the AFC, Colts lose to Chargers. West coast Superbowl! Seahawks lose in a blowout, but hey, we'll make it.
A) Bears have a terrible QB situation, and wants the win too bad, which will cause a not abnormal <30 pass rating by Grossman. The Seahawk offense will hit rare form as finally they start being cohesive again, and will eat away at an injured yet stingy defense.
B)The Saints, while inspiring, and the game will be in New Orleans, will fall to a shrewd offensive game by Holmgren and a uncharacteristically voracious defense, which helped Seattle in last years playoffs.
C) Seattle can beat any team that doesn't have a superior running game. The Chargers have a superior running game. End of the road.

Jim Anderson said...

Aaron, Seattle just about beat San Diego last time--we contained Tomlinson, but gave up that one long pass to lose it.

AC said...

"Seattle just about beat San Diego last time"
When Seattle has to focus on the run, they become vulnerable in the deep thirds. They traditionally aren't a complete defense- a very good one, but vulnerable when they have to concentrate on one super-threat

Matthew Anderson said...

Um, boy that's a rough start for Florida, eh? : )

Matthew Anderson said...

(Hits 'delete' key furiously)


Jim Anderson said...

At 5:36, it was a rough start for Florida (thanks to an uncalled hold on the return TD).

At 7:36, it was all pain and no gain for OSU.

Scarily, my prediction might be wrong for having been too conservative.

Mike Kretzler said...

Indeed, so conservative that it can't be counted as right (in my opinion).

Jim Anderson said...

Mike, I agree. Even though I thought after the LSU game that the SEC was a lot tougher than people were saying, I never imagined that OSU could come out that cold. 82 yards of offense. Incredible.