GAO report on illegal immigration

Update, 11:04 a.m. Reflecting on this post, I saw an error in my reasoning, which I will correct momentarily. It may affect the results.

Update, 11:15 a.m. The math has been corrected. The results do not significantly change the conclusions.



We'll have to wait to see how the xenophobes respond to this one--since the statistics, this time, aren't bogus. A GAO study examines over 50,000 illegal aliens in the prison population at all levels (federal, state, and local), finding that, among other things,

* They were arrested at least a total of 459,614 times, averaging about 8 arrests per illegal alien. Nearly all had more than 1 arrest. Thirty-eight percent (about 21,000) had between 2 and 5 arrests, 32 percent (about 18,000) had between 6 and 10 arrests, and 26 percent (about 15,000) had 11 or more arrests. Most of the arrests occurred after 1990.

* They were arrested for a total of about 700,000 criminal offenses, averaging about 13 offenses per illegal alien. One arrest incident may include multiple offenses, a fact that explains why there are nearly one and half times more offenses than arrests.[Footnote 6] Almost all of these illegal aliens were arrested for more than 1 offense. Slightly more than half of the 55,322 illegal aliens had between 2 and 10 offenses. About 45 percent of all offenses were drug or immigration offenses. About 15 percent were property-related offenses such as burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and property damage. About 12 percent were for violent offenses such as murder, robbery, assault, and sex-related crimes. The balance was for such other offenses as traffic violations, including driving under the influence; fraud--including forgery and counterfeiting; weapons violations; and obstruction of justice.

The immediate problem with these statistics is the lack of context. Sure, imprisoned illegal immigrants have committed crimes, many of them--just like all other criminals. But are they more likely to offend? Overburdening the system? Incarcerated for worse crimes? Inquiring nativists want to know. (Others, I'm sure, are equally interested.)

A moment's investigation gives reason for caution. According to a 2004 Department of Justice report (with statistics as frequent as 2002), despite increasing numbers of permanent illegal aliens from Mexico--the unexpected result of tighter border security--the percentage of ethnic or racial minorities in prison stayed the same between 1996 and 2002.

Furthermore, compare percentages of crimes from the overall population to the subpopulation of illegal aliens, and see that they're skewed in favor of the aliens.

Most serious offense, 2002, all incarcerated:
Violent offenses: 25.4% [compared to 12% 15.1% of non-immigration offenses above]
Property offenses: 24.4% [compared to 15% 19% of non-immigration offenses above]
Drug offenses: 24.7 % [compared to 30.3% of non-immigration offenses above]
Public-order offenses: 24.9%

Take away the number of offenses related to illegal immigration--forgery, obstruction of justice (for flight), and the like--and the ratios skew even further a little closer to the expected rate--but remember that the overall numbers include illegal immigrants, which means they would be higher in nearly all cases if aliens were excepted.

In sum, illegal aliens as a whole are no more likely, and may even be less likely to commit violent offenses.

I'm sure criminal experts will have a much more detailed analysis soon. I'll try to post updates when they're available. I'll also keep track of the "95% of warrants" crowd, to see if they latch on to this study. I predict they will--and I predict they'll misinterpret the results.

Added (see above): I forgot to subtract immigration offenses (21%) from the first study total when comparing the rates of offenses. The percentages above are revised according to the correction. I'm no statistician, so if you see any other errors, please let me know.


[GAO link via Instapundit]